How effective are social distancing policies? Evidence on the fight against COVID-19

To fight the spread of COVID-19, many countries implemented social distancing policies. This is the first paper that examines the effects of the German social distancing policies on behavior and the epidemic's spread. Exploiting the staggered timing of COVID-19 outbreaks in extended event-study...

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Veröffentlicht in:	PloS one 2021-09, Vol.16 (9), p.e0257363
Hauptverfasser:	Glogowsky, Ulrich, Hansen, Emanuel, Schächtele, Simeon
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Control Coronaviruses COVID-19 COVID-19 - epidemiology COVID-19 - prevention & control Development banks Disease control Disease transmission Epidemics Estimates Evaluation Fatalities Germany - epidemiology Humans Medical research Medicine and Health Sciences People and places Physical Distancing Policies Public health administration Rural areas SARS-CoV-2 - isolation & purification Science Policy Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Social behavior Social distancing Social research Social Sciences Viral diseases
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:	To fight the spread of COVID-19, many countries implemented social distancing policies. This is the first paper that examines the effects of the German social distancing policies on behavior and the epidemic's spread. Exploiting the staggered timing of COVID-19 outbreaks in extended event-study models, we find that the policies heavily reduced mobility and contagion. In comparison to a no-social-distancing benchmark, within three weeks, the policies avoided 84% of the potential COVID-19 cases (point estimate: 499.3K) and 66% of the potential fatalities (5.4K). The policies' relative effects were smaller for individuals above 60 and in rural areas.
ISSN:	1932-6203 1932-6203
DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0257363