Predisaster predictors of posttraumatic stress symptom trajectories: An analysis of low-income women in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina

Exposure to disasters is associated with a range of posttraumatic stress symptom (PTSS) trajectories. However, few studies have tracked PTSS for more than a decade postdisaster, and none to our knowledge has explored the role of predisaster resources and vulnerabilities in shaping the likelihood of trajectory membership. The current study included participants from the Resilience in Survivors of Katrina Study (N = 885). Participants were originally part of a community college intervention study and were assessed prior to the hurricane (6-21 months predisaster), and approximately 1 year, 4 years, and 12 years postdisaster. Latent class growth analysis identified PTSS trajectories. Perceived social support, probable mental illness, and physical health conditions or problems-all assessed predisaster-were examined as predictors of trajectory membership at the univariate level and in multivariable models without and with adjustment for disaster exposure. Three PTSS trajectories were detected: Moderate-Decreasing (69.3%), High-Decreasing (23.1%), and High-Stable (7.6%). In the multivariable predictive model without adjustment for disaster exposure, probable predisaster mental illness was significantly associated with greater odds of the High-Decreasing and High-Stable trajectories, and physical health conditions or problems with greater odds of the High-Decreasing trajectory, relative to the Moderate-Decreasing trajectory. However, when disaster exposure was adjusted, only the association between predisaster mental illness and the odds of the High-Stable trajectory remained statistically significant. Lower predisaster perceived social support was significantly associated with membership in the High-Decreasing trajectory, relative to the Moderate-Decreasing, at the univariate level, but not in either multivariable model. Whereas predisaster mental illness confers risk for chronic postdisaster PTSS, other impacts of predisaster resources and vulnerabilities on elevated PTSS trajectories do not go beyond those of disaster exposure. The results support disaster preparedness efforts targeting those with mental and physical health conditions, and postdisaster mental health services addressing preexisting vulnerabilities in addition to disaster-related PTSS.