Evaluation of Senegal supply chain intervention on contraceptive stockouts using routine stock data

Until 2011, stockouts of family planning commodities were common in Senegalese public health facilities. Recognizing the importance of addressing this problem, the Government of Senegal implemented the Informed Push Model (IPM) supply system, which involves logisticians to collect facility-level stock turnover data once a month and provide contraceptive supplies accordingly. The aims of this paper were to evaluate the impact of IPM on contraceptive availability and on stockout duration. To estimate the impact of the IPM on contraceptive availability, stock card data were obtained from health facilities selected through multistage sampling. A total number of 103 health facilities pertaining to 27 districts and nine regions across the country participated in this project. We compared the odds of contraceptive stockouts within the health facilities on the 23 months after the intervention with the 18 months before. The analysis was performed with a logistic model of the monthly time-series. The odds of stockout for any of the five contraceptive products decreased during the 23 months post-intervention compared to the 18 months pre-intervention (odds ratio, 95%CI: 0.34, 0.22-0.51). To evaluate the impact of the IPM on duration of stockouts, a mixed negative binomial zero-truncated regression analysis was performed. The IPM was not effective in reducing the duration of contraceptive stockouts (incidence rate ratio, 95%CI: 0.81, 0.24-2.7), except for the two long-acting contraceptives (intrauterine devices and implants). Our model predicted a decrease in stockout median duration from 23 pre- to 4 days post-intervention for intrauterine devices; and from 19 to 14 days for implants. We conclude that the IPM has resulted in greater efficiency in contraceptive stock management, increasing the availability of contraceptive methods in health facilities in Senegal. The IPM also resulted in decreased duration of stockouts for intrauterine devices and implants, but not for any of the short-acting contraception (pills and injectables).