Is recent Afghanistan survey data suitable for fertility analysis? A regional investigation based on fertility inhibiting determinants

Afghanistan has been a country blighted by war over the past five decades and limited research is available on its demography. This study seeks to assess the suitability of recent survey data for Afghanistan (the 2010 Afghanistan Mortality Survey (AMS)and the 2015 Afghanistan Demographic and Health Survey (ADHS)) for estimating levels and trends in fertility. As several fertility measures rely on the quality of age data, we first apply demographic tools for the identification of age misreporting, finding evidence that it is severe. We then explore the consistency of fertility reporting across the two surveys, finding that the 2015 ADHS reports higher fertility among older women than the 2010 AMS although the seasonal pattern of fertility is consistent across the two surveys. We then estimate total fertility rates in 2008-2010 and 2012-2015 and measures of Bongaarts's key proximate determinants of fertility for Afghanistan and its provinces for urban and rural areas separately. The results show that fertility is similar in urban and rural Afghanistan. Although most of the provincial data on the proximate determinants is reasonably consistent with the fertility rates, there are anomalies in some provinces which indicate the possible under-reporting of births. Overall, we conclude that the fertility data in the two surveys can be used with care to give an indication of broad regional fertility patterns and trends in the country.