Clostridium butyricum population balance model: Predicting dynamic metabolic flux distributions using an objective function related to extracellular glycerol content

Extensive experimentation has been conducted to increment 1,3-propanediol (PDO) production using Clostridium butyricum cultures in glycerol, but computational predictions are limited. Previously, we reconstructed the genome-scale metabolic (GSM) model iCbu641, the first such model of a PDO-producing Clostridium strain, which was validated at steady state using flux balance analysis (FBA). However, the prediction ability of FBA is limited for batch and fed-batch cultures, which are the most often employed industrial processes. We used the iCbu641 GSM model to develop a dynamic flux balance analysis (DFBA) approach to predict the PDO production of the Colombian strain Clostridium sp IBUN 158B. First, we compared the predictions of the dynamic optimization approach (DOA), static optimization approach (SOA), and direct approach (DA). We found no differences between approaches, but the DOA simulation duration was nearly 5000 times that of the SOA and DA simulations. Experimental results at glycerol limitation and glycerol excess allowed for validating dynamic predictions of growth, glycerol consumption, and PDO formation. These results indicated a 4.4% error in PDO prediction and therefore validated the previously proposed objective functions. We performed two global sensitivity analyses, finding that the kinetic input parameters of glycerol uptake flux had the most significant effect on PDO predictions. The other input parameters evaluated during global sensitivity analysis were biomass composition (precursors and macromolecules), death constants, and the kinetic parameters of acetic acid secretion flux. These last input parameters, all obtained from other Clostridium butyricum cultures, were used to develop a population balance model (PBM). Finally, we simulated fed-batch cultures, predicting a final PDO production near to 66 g/L, almost three times the PDO predicted in the best batch culture. We developed and validated a dynamic approach to predict PDO production using the iCbu641 GSM model and the previously proposed objective functions. This validated approach was used to propose a population model and then an increment in predictions of PDO production through fed-batch cultures. Therefore, this dynamic model could predict different scenarios, including its integration into downstream processes to predict technical-economic feasibilities and reducing the time and costs associated with experimentation.