Dynamics of American tegumentary leishmaniasis in a highly endemic region for Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis infection in northeast Brazil

American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis (ATL) caused by Leishmania braziliensis is endemic in Corte de Pedra, Northeast Brazil. Most L. braziliensis infections manifest as localized cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL). Disseminated manifestations include mucosal leishmaniasis (ML), present at a low constant level for several decades, and newly emerging disseminated leishmaniasis (DL). Surprisingly, DL has recently surpassed ML in its spatial distribution. This led us to hypothesize that distinct forms of ATL might spread in different patterns through affected regions. We explored the incidence and geographic dispersion of the three clinical types of ATL over a span of nearly two decades in Corte de Pedra. We obtained the geographic coordinates of the homes of patients with ATL during 1992-1996, 1999-2003 and 2008-2011. The progressive dispersion of ML or DL in each time period was compared to that of CL in 2008-2011 with the Cusick and Edward's geostatistical test. To evaluate whether ATL occurred as clusters, we compared each new case in 2008-2011 with the frequency of and distance from cases in the previous 3 to 12 months. The study revealed that DL, ML and CL actively spread within that region, but in distinct patterns. Whereas CL and DL propagated in clusters, ML occurred as sporadic cases. DL had a wider distribution than ML until 2003, but by 2011 both forms were distributed equally in Corte de Pedra. The incidence of ML fluctuated over time at a rate that was distinct from those of CL and DL. These findings suggest that CL and DL maintain endemic levels through successive outbreaks of cases. The sporadic pattern of ML cases may reflect the long and variable latency before infected patients develop clinically detectable mucosal involvement. Intimate knowledge of the geographic distribution of leishmaniasis and how it propagates within foci of active transmission may guide approaches to disease control.