Estimating the basic reproduction rate of HFMD using the time series SIR model in Guangdong, China

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has caused a substantial burden of disease in China, especially in Guangdong Province. Based on notifiable cases, we use the time series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model to estimate the basic reproduction rate (R0) and the herd immunity threshold, understandi...

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Veröffentlicht in:	PloS one 2017-07, Vol.12 (7), p.e0179623-e0179623
Hauptverfasser:	Du, Zhicheng, Zhang, Wangjian, Zhang, Dingmei, Yu, Shicheng, Hao, Yuantao
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Airbag restraint systems Analysis Autumn Basic Reproduction Number Biology and Life Sciences China - epidemiology Cities Coxsackievirus infections Diagnosis Disease control Disease prevention Disease Susceptibility Education Epidemics Epidemiology Geography Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease - epidemiology Hand-foot-and-mouth disease Health aspects Health surveillance Herd immunity Humans Immunity Immunization Infectious diseases Information services Information sharing Intervention Laboratories Measles Medical statistics Medicine Medicine and Health Sciences Models, Biological People and Places Population Public health Reproduction Risk factors Serotyping Spring (season) Summer Time Factors Time series Tropical diseases
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:	Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has caused a substantial burden of disease in China, especially in Guangdong Province. Based on notifiable cases, we use the time series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model to estimate the basic reproduction rate (R0) and the herd immunity threshold, understanding the transmission and persistence of HFMD more completely for efficient intervention in this province. The standardized difference between the reported and fitted time series of HFMD was 0.009 (
ISSN:	1932-6203 1932-6203
DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0179623