Dengue and the world football cup: a matter of timing

A recent study produced a dengue early warning three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup [10], driven by seasonal climate forecasts and the epidemiological situation at the time of forecast, with a risk map and uncertainty estimates for the 553 microregions of Brazil. The model results showed a low probability of dengue outbreaks for cities located in the south and central regions (Brasília, Cuiabá, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, and São Paulo), moderate risk in Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, and Manaus, and a higher probability of exceeding 300 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in Fortaleza, Natal, and Recife. [...]efforts to reduce dengue incidence and severity should be concentrated in these cities.