A water balance study of the upper White Nile basin flows in the late nineteenth century

A water balance model of the Nile is described, working in terms of dry season flows. The main use of the modelling studies was to extend flows back to the start of observations at Aswan in 1869, and hence to estimate the levels of Lake Victoria during the high flow event of the 1870s. New estimates of Lake Victoria levels and outflows for the period 1870-1895 are deduced, extending the length of the observed data for Lake Victoria by some 25%. Crucially, the analysis includes the major flood event of 1878, which historical evidence suggests was the highest since 1860 or earlier. The modelling results are compared with previous estimates and a detailed examination of historical evidence. Some prospects for future levels are considered, taking into account the reconstructed levels of the late nineteenth century.