Real-Time Flood Forecasting on the Blue Nile River

The SMAR-AR Model is used for real-time riverflow forecasting on the Blue Nile catchment at Eldeim Station, which is located near the Sudanese-Ethiopian border. The SMAR-AR model is calibrated using data for the period 1992-1994 and verified by the data for the year 1995. The results of the SMAR-AR model are compared with those of the SAMFIL model that is currently used by the Sudanese Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources (MOIWR) for riverflow forecasting at Eldeim Station. The SAMFIL was developed and brought into operation in Sudan by Delft Hydraulics of the Netherlands. The comparison of results is carried out during four flood seasons for the years 1992-1995. The discharge forecasts of the SAMFIL model are obtained from the archives of the MOIWR. The results of the comparison show that the discharge forecasts of the SMAR-AR model are far more reliable than those of the SAMFIL.