Network global expectation model: a statistical formalism for quickly quantifying network needs and costs

In the model presented here, we evaluate expectation values over the entire network to obtain a multimoment description of the required quantities of key network and network element (NE) resources and commensurate network costs. This approach naturally and analytically connects the global (network) and local (NE) views of the communication system and thereby the model can be used as a tool to gain insight and very quickly provide approximate results for the preliminary evaluation and design of dynamic networks. Further, the global expectation model can serve as a valuable guide in the areas of NE feature requirements, costs, sensitivity analyses, scaling performance, comparisons, product definition and application domains, and product and technology roadmapping. We illustrate the application of the techniques to backbone, fiber-optic transport networks.