Zooplankton abundance trends and patterns in Shelikof Strait, western Gulf of Alaska, USA, 1990–2017

Abstract A multivariate approach was used to analyze spring zooplankton abundance in Shelikof Strait, western Gulf of Alaska. abundance of individual zooplankton taxa was related to environmental variables using generalized additive models. The most important variables that correlated with zooplankton abundance were water temperature, salinity and ordinal day (day of year when sample was collected). A long-term increase in abundance was found for the calanoid copepod Calanus pacificus, copepodite stage 5 (C5). A dynamic factor analysis (DFA) indicated one underlying trend in the multivariate environmental data that related to phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. DFA of zooplankton time series also indicated one underlying trend where the positive phase was characterized by increases in the abundance of C. marshallae C5, C. pacificus C5, Eucalanus bungii C4, Pseudocalanus spp. C5 and Limacina helicina and declines in the abundance of Neocalanus cristatus C4 and Neocalanus spp. C4. The environmental and zooplankton DFA trends were not correlated over the length of the entire time period; however, the two time series were correlated post-2004. The strong relationship between environmental conditions, zooplankton abundance and time of sampling suggests that continued warming in the region may lead to changes in zooplankton community composition and timing of life history events during spring.