Under Pressure

The final section of the book returns to the cross-national level of analysis account for variation in urban bias across nondemocracies. The book’s overall argument claims that urban bias has short-term benefits but also long-term costs. At a moment of crisis when short-term incentives dominated more distant concerns, the Chinese regime did open the floodgates to urban loans in support of urban employment. Do other regimes retreat to urban bias in tough times? The chapter presents cross-national statistical evidence that exploit external events that affect regimes’ revenues and political stability to examine changes in redistributive policy. Negative economic and political shocks lead to redistributive policies that are more urban-biased, akin to political triage as governments attempt to maintain a baseline of support. For importers, global oil price increases represent a drain on resources; similarly, civil wars erupting in neighboring countries can affect political stability at home and shorten time horizons.