Climatic factors and human population changes in Eurasia between the Last Glacial Maximum and the early Holocene

Archaeological records document a significant expansion of populations from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼23–19 ka) to the early Holocene (EH, ∼9 ka) in Eurasia, which is often attributed to the influence of orbital-scale climate changes. Yet, information remains limited concerning the climatic factor(s) which were responsible for conditioning demographic patterns. Here, we present results from an improved Minimalist Terrestrial Resource Model (MTRM), forced by a transient climate simulation from the LGM to the EH. Simulated potential hunter-gatherer population densities and spatial distributions across Eurasia are supported by observed archaeological sites in Europe and China. In the low latitudes, potential population size change was predominantly controlled by precipitation and its strong influence on plant and animal resources. In the middle-high latitudes, temperature was the dominant driver in influencing potential population size change and animal resource availability. Different regional responses of potential populations to climate change across Eurasia - owing to variations in available food resources between the LGM and EH - provide a better understanding of human dispersal during the Late Pleistocene. •Integrated models to study influences of climate variables on Eurasia population.•Simulated potential population distributions are validated by the archaeological sites.•Temperature controlled the population change in middle-high latitudes, but precipitation determined it in low latitudes.•Different responses of population to climate changes are implicative for Late Pleistocene human dispersals.