Risk of Pathologic Upgrading or Locally Advanced Disease in Early Prostate Cancer Patients Based on Biopsy Gleason Score and PSA: A Population-Based Study of Modern Patients

Purpose Radiation oncologists rely on available clinical information (biopsy Gleason score and prostate-specific antigen [PSA]) to determine the optimal treatment regimen for each prostate cancer patient. Existing published nomograms correlating clinical to pathologic extent of disease were based on patients treated in the 1980s and 1990s at select academic institutions. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to examine pathologic outcomes (Gleason score and cancer stage) in early prostate cancer patients based on biopsy Gleason score and PSA concentration. Methods and Materials This analysis included 25,858 patients whose cancer was diagnosed between 2010 and 2011, with biopsy Gleason scores of 6 to 7 and clinical stage T1 to T2 disease, who underwent radical prostatectomy. In subgroups based on biopsy Gleason score and PSA level, we report the proportion of patients with pathologically advanced disease (positive surgical margin or pT3-T4 disease) or whose Gleason score was upgraded. Logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with pathologic outcomes. Results For patients with biopsy Gleason score 6 cancers, 84% of those with PSA