Evaluation of WRF simulation of deep convection in the US Southern Great Plains

The Southern Great Plains (SGP) exhibits a relatively high frequency of periods with extremely high rainfall rates (RR) and hail. Here, seven months of 2017 are simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model applied at convection permitting resolution with the Mibrandt-Yau microphysics scheme. Simulation fidelity is evaluated, particularly during intense convective events, using data from ASOS stations, dual-polarization RADAR, gridded data sets and observations at the DoE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site. The spatial gradients and temporal variability of precipitation and the cumulative density functions for both RR and wind speeds exhibit fidelity. Odds ratios >1 indicate WRF is also skillful in simulating high composite reflectivity (cREF, used as a measure of widespread convection) and RR > 5 mmhr–1 over the domain. Detailed analyses of the ten days with highest spatial coverage of cREF >30 dBZ show spatially similar reflectivity fields and high RR in both RADAR data and WRF simulations. However, during periods of high reflectivity, WRF exhibits a positive bias in terms of very high RR (> 25 mmhr–1) and hail occurrence, and during the summer and transition months, maximum hail size is underestimated. For some renewable energy applications fidelity is required with respect to the joint probabilities of wind speed and RR and/or hail. While partial fidelity is achieved for the marginal probabilities, performance during events of critical importance to these energy applications is currently not sufficient. Further research into optimal WRF configurations in support of potential damage quantification for these applications is warranted.