Modeling India’s energy future using a bottom-up approach
•India’s forecasted economic growth suggests that emissions will almost quadruple by 2050.•Our analysis shows that India can achieve its NDC target with currently implemented policies.•India’s emissions intensity in 2030 will be 36% below 2005 levels in baseline scenario.•Much of the emission growth...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Applied energy 2019-03, Vol.238, p.1108-1125 |
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Hauptverfasser: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Artikel |
Sprache: | eng |
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Zusammenfassung: | •India’s forecasted economic growth suggests that emissions will almost quadruple by 2050.•Our analysis shows that India can achieve its NDC target with currently implemented policies.•India’s emissions intensity in 2030 will be 36% below 2005 levels in baseline scenario.•Much of the emission growth will come from the industry sector.•Four industry subsectors are projected to represent 78% of total direct emissions in 2050.
India and China are the world’s most populous nations, but they have experienced a very different pattern of economic development. As a result, India currently contributes less than one-quarter of the amount of China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, India’s forecasted economic growth suggests that those emissions will almost quadruple, with much of this rise coming from the industry sector. Whole-economy scenarios for limiting global warming suggest that direct CO2 emissions should decrease significantly, but leave unanswered the question of how this can be achieved by real-world policies. This study describes a bottom-up model that can be used to assess the impacts of emissions mitigation policies and the linkages between the physical drivers and energy growth of India’s key industries. It focuses on capturing the main physical drivers of this growth, to identify and prioritize the subsectors to address and develop sustainable, low carbon pathways to support economic growth. This analysis shows that India can achieve its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) while achieving substantial economic growth using its currently planned policies. The study describes in detail the methodology and underlying assumptions that are needed by policy makers to inform targeted policy interventions and provide a baseline scenario in the case of no major new technology breakthroughs and no new adopted policies. |
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ISSN: | 0306-2619 1872-9118 |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.065 |