Quantifying the Occurrence of Record Hot Years Through Normalized Warming Trends
Surface air temperature trends and extreme events are of global concern and they are related. Here, we show that the occurrence of record hot years over different latitudes from 1960 to 2019 are more strongly correlated with the observational annual mean temperature trends normalized by internal var...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Geophysical research letters 2021-05, Vol.48 (10), p.n/a |
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description | Surface air temperature trends and extreme events are of global concern and they are related. Here, we show that the occurrence of record hot years over different latitudes from 1960 to 2019 are more strongly correlated with the observational annual mean temperature trends normalized by internal variability. Compared with the raw trends showing Arctic amplification, the normalized trends show a tropical amplification over land. Two hot spots with more frequent occurrence of record hot years are identified: northern hemisphere ocean (vs. land) and southern hemisphere tropical land (vs. mid‐ and high‐latitude lands). Ensemble mean results from 32 Earth system models agree with observations better than individual models, but they do not reproduce observed large differences in correlations across latitudes between normalized trends and record‐breaking events over land versus ocean. Our results enable the quantification of record hot year occurrence through normalized warming trends and provide new metrics for model evaluation and improvement.
Plain Language Summary
Surface air temperature trends and extreme hot events are of global concern and they are related. Based on generic time series, it was argued that the occurrence of extreme events depends on the normalized, rather than the raw, trends. However, it remains unknown whether this dependence is relevant to the comparison of extreme hot event occurrences over different regions, such as the Arctic versus Amazon. Here, we show that the occurrence of record hot years over different regions from 1960 to 2019 are more strongly correlated with the observational annual mean temperature trends normalized by internal variability. Compared with the raw trends showing Arctic amplification, the normalized trends show a tropical amplification over land. Two hot spots with more frequent occurrence of record hot years are identified: Northern hemisphere ocean (vs. land) and southern hemisphere tropical land (vs. mid‐ and high‐latitude lands). Results averaged from 32 Earth system models agree with observations better than individual models, but they do not reproduce observed large differences in correlations across latitudes between normalized trends and record‐breaking events over land versus ocean. Our results enable the quantification of record hot year occurrence through normalized warming trends and provide new metrics for model evaluation and improvement.
Key Points
Occurrence of record hot years in different lati |
doi_str_mv | 10.1029/2020GL091626 |
format | Article |
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Plain Language Summary
Surface air temperature trends and extreme hot events are of global concern and they are related. Based on generic time series, it was argued that the occurrence of extreme events depends on the normalized, rather than the raw, trends. However, it remains unknown whether this dependence is relevant to the comparison of extreme hot event occurrences over different regions, such as the Arctic versus Amazon. Here, we show that the occurrence of record hot years over different regions from 1960 to 2019 are more strongly correlated with the observational annual mean temperature trends normalized by internal variability. Compared with the raw trends showing Arctic amplification, the normalized trends show a tropical amplification over land. Two hot spots with more frequent occurrence of record hot years are identified: Northern hemisphere ocean (vs. land) and southern hemisphere tropical land (vs. mid‐ and high‐latitude lands). Results averaged from 32 Earth system models agree with observations better than individual models, but they do not reproduce observed large differences in correlations across latitudes between normalized trends and record‐breaking events over land versus ocean. Our results enable the quantification of record hot year occurrence through normalized warming trends and provide new metrics for model evaluation and improvement.
Key Points
Occurrence of record hot years in different latitudes is better correlated with normalized, rather than raw, temperature trends
Compared with the raw trends showing Arctic amplification, the normalized trends show a tropical amplification over land
Earth system models’ correlations between normalized trends and record‐breaking events are as high over land as over ocean, unlike in observations</description><identifier>ISSN: 0094-8276</identifier><identifier>EISSN: 1944-8007</identifier><identifier>DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091626</identifier><language>eng</language><publisher>United States: American Geophysical Union</publisher><subject>Arctic amplification ; climate change ; Earth system models ; extreme heat ; GEOSCIENCES ; global warming ; normalized warming trends ; tropical amplification ; warming trends</subject><ispartof>Geophysical research letters, 2021-05, Vol.48 (10), p.n/a</ispartof><rights>2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.</rights><lds50>peer_reviewed</lds50><oa>free_for_read</oa><woscitedreferencessubscribed>false</woscitedreferencessubscribed><citedby>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3433-37937266946dfc986edfbe01f7f0d3568b77be99c760b64ac9c4766cad8449263</citedby><cites>FETCH-LOGICAL-c3433-37937266946dfc986edfbe01f7f0d3568b77be99c760b64ac9c4766cad8449263</cites><orcidid>0000-0001-7352-2764 ; 0000-0001-8893-9810 ; 0000-0002-6889-5395 ; 0000000173522764 ; 0000000268895395 ; 0000000188939810</orcidid></display><links><openurl>$$Topenurl_article</openurl><openurlfulltext>$$Topenurlfull_article</openurlfulltext><thumbnail>$$Tsyndetics_thumb_exl</thumbnail><linktopdf>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029%2F2020GL091626$$EPDF$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktopdf><linktohtml>$$Uhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029%2F2020GL091626$$EHTML$$P50$$Gwiley$$H</linktohtml><link.rule.ids>230,314,776,780,881,1411,1427,11495,27903,27904,45553,45554,46387,46446,46811,46870</link.rule.ids><backlink>$$Uhttps://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1798413$$D View this record in Osti.gov$$Hfree_for_read</backlink></links><search><creatorcontrib>Zeng, Xubin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Reeves Eyre, J. E. Jack</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Dixon, Ross D.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Arevalo, Jorge</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)</creatorcontrib><title>Quantifying the Occurrence of Record Hot Years Through Normalized Warming Trends</title><title>Geophysical research letters</title><description>Surface air temperature trends and extreme events are of global concern and they are related. Here, we show that the occurrence of record hot years over different latitudes from 1960 to 2019 are more strongly correlated with the observational annual mean temperature trends normalized by internal variability. Compared with the raw trends showing Arctic amplification, the normalized trends show a tropical amplification over land. Two hot spots with more frequent occurrence of record hot years are identified: northern hemisphere ocean (vs. land) and southern hemisphere tropical land (vs. mid‐ and high‐latitude lands). Ensemble mean results from 32 Earth system models agree with observations better than individual models, but they do not reproduce observed large differences in correlations across latitudes between normalized trends and record‐breaking events over land versus ocean. Our results enable the quantification of record hot year occurrence through normalized warming trends and provide new metrics for model evaluation and improvement.
Plain Language Summary
Surface air temperature trends and extreme hot events are of global concern and they are related. Based on generic time series, it was argued that the occurrence of extreme events depends on the normalized, rather than the raw, trends. However, it remains unknown whether this dependence is relevant to the comparison of extreme hot event occurrences over different regions, such as the Arctic versus Amazon. Here, we show that the occurrence of record hot years over different regions from 1960 to 2019 are more strongly correlated with the observational annual mean temperature trends normalized by internal variability. Compared with the raw trends showing Arctic amplification, the normalized trends show a tropical amplification over land. Two hot spots with more frequent occurrence of record hot years are identified: Northern hemisphere ocean (vs. land) and southern hemisphere tropical land (vs. mid‐ and high‐latitude lands). Results averaged from 32 Earth system models agree with observations better than individual models, but they do not reproduce observed large differences in correlations across latitudes between normalized trends and record‐breaking events over land versus ocean. Our results enable the quantification of record hot year occurrence through normalized warming trends and provide new metrics for model evaluation and improvement.
Key Points
Occurrence of record hot years in different latitudes is better correlated with normalized, rather than raw, temperature trends
Compared with the raw trends showing Arctic amplification, the normalized trends show a tropical amplification over land
Earth system models’ correlations between normalized trends and record‐breaking events are as high over land as over ocean, unlike in observations</description><subject>Arctic amplification</subject><subject>climate change</subject><subject>Earth system models</subject><subject>extreme heat</subject><subject>GEOSCIENCES</subject><subject>global warming</subject><subject>normalized warming trends</subject><subject>tropical amplification</subject><subject>warming trends</subject><issn>0094-8276</issn><issn>1944-8007</issn><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>article</rsrctype><creationdate>2021</creationdate><recordtype>article</recordtype><recordid>eNp90L1OwzAUBWALgUQpbDyAxUzg-gc7HhGCFimiUBUhpsi5sZugNkZ2KlSenlRlYGK6d_jOGQ4h5wyuGHBzzYHDpADDFFcHZMSMlFkOoA_JCMAMP9fqmJyk9AEAAgQbkeeXje361m_bbkn7xtEZ4iZG16GjwdO5wxBrOg09fXc2JrpoYtgsG_oU4tqu2m9X0zcb17v0YkjV6ZQcebtK7uz3jsnrw_3ibpoVs8nj3W2RoZBCZEIboblSRqrao8mVq33lgHntoRY3Kq-0rpwxqBVUSlo0KLVSaOtcSsOVGJOLfW9IfVsmbHuHDYauc9iXTJtcMjGgyz3CGFKKzpefsV3buC0ZlLvJyr-TDZzv-Ve7ctt_bTmZF4oLI8QPDEJr_w</recordid><startdate>20210528</startdate><enddate>20210528</enddate><creator>Zeng, Xubin</creator><creator>Reeves Eyre, J. E. Jack</creator><creator>Dixon, Ross D.</creator><creator>Arevalo, Jorge</creator><general>American Geophysical Union</general><scope>AAYXX</scope><scope>CITATION</scope><scope>OIOZB</scope><scope>OTOTI</scope><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7352-2764</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8893-9810</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6889-5395</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000000173522764</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000000268895395</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000000188939810</orcidid></search><sort><creationdate>20210528</creationdate><title>Quantifying the Occurrence of Record Hot Years Through Normalized Warming Trends</title><author>Zeng, Xubin ; Reeves Eyre, J. E. Jack ; Dixon, Ross D. ; Arevalo, Jorge</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-LOGICAL-c3433-37937266946dfc986edfbe01f7f0d3568b77be99c760b64ac9c4766cad8449263</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>articles</rsrctype><prefilter>articles</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2021</creationdate><topic>Arctic amplification</topic><topic>climate change</topic><topic>Earth system models</topic><topic>extreme heat</topic><topic>GEOSCIENCES</topic><topic>global warming</topic><topic>normalized warming trends</topic><topic>tropical amplification</topic><topic>warming trends</topic><toplevel>peer_reviewed</toplevel><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Zeng, Xubin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Reeves Eyre, J. E. Jack</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Dixon, Ross D.</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Arevalo, Jorge</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)</creatorcontrib><collection>CrossRef</collection><collection>OSTI.GOV - Hybrid</collection><collection>OSTI.GOV</collection><jtitle>Geophysical research letters</jtitle></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Zeng, Xubin</au><au>Reeves Eyre, J. E. Jack</au><au>Dixon, Ross D.</au><au>Arevalo, Jorge</au><aucorp>Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)</aucorp><format>journal</format><genre>article</genre><ristype>JOUR</ristype><atitle>Quantifying the Occurrence of Record Hot Years Through Normalized Warming Trends</atitle><jtitle>Geophysical research letters</jtitle><date>2021-05-28</date><risdate>2021</risdate><volume>48</volume><issue>10</issue><epage>n/a</epage><issn>0094-8276</issn><eissn>1944-8007</eissn><abstract>Surface air temperature trends and extreme events are of global concern and they are related. Here, we show that the occurrence of record hot years over different latitudes from 1960 to 2019 are more strongly correlated with the observational annual mean temperature trends normalized by internal variability. Compared with the raw trends showing Arctic amplification, the normalized trends show a tropical amplification over land. Two hot spots with more frequent occurrence of record hot years are identified: northern hemisphere ocean (vs. land) and southern hemisphere tropical land (vs. mid‐ and high‐latitude lands). Ensemble mean results from 32 Earth system models agree with observations better than individual models, but they do not reproduce observed large differences in correlations across latitudes between normalized trends and record‐breaking events over land versus ocean. Our results enable the quantification of record hot year occurrence through normalized warming trends and provide new metrics for model evaluation and improvement.
Plain Language Summary
Surface air temperature trends and extreme hot events are of global concern and they are related. Based on generic time series, it was argued that the occurrence of extreme events depends on the normalized, rather than the raw, trends. However, it remains unknown whether this dependence is relevant to the comparison of extreme hot event occurrences over different regions, such as the Arctic versus Amazon. Here, we show that the occurrence of record hot years over different regions from 1960 to 2019 are more strongly correlated with the observational annual mean temperature trends normalized by internal variability. Compared with the raw trends showing Arctic amplification, the normalized trends show a tropical amplification over land. Two hot spots with more frequent occurrence of record hot years are identified: Northern hemisphere ocean (vs. land) and southern hemisphere tropical land (vs. mid‐ and high‐latitude lands). Results averaged from 32 Earth system models agree with observations better than individual models, but they do not reproduce observed large differences in correlations across latitudes between normalized trends and record‐breaking events over land versus ocean. Our results enable the quantification of record hot year occurrence through normalized warming trends and provide new metrics for model evaluation and improvement.
Key Points
Occurrence of record hot years in different latitudes is better correlated with normalized, rather than raw, temperature trends
Compared with the raw trends showing Arctic amplification, the normalized trends show a tropical amplification over land
Earth system models’ correlations between normalized trends and record‐breaking events are as high over land as over ocean, unlike in observations</abstract><cop>United States</cop><pub>American Geophysical Union</pub><doi>10.1029/2020GL091626</doi><tpages>7</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7352-2764</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8893-9810</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6889-5395</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000000173522764</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000000268895395</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000000188939810</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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subjects | Arctic amplification climate change Earth system models extreme heat GEOSCIENCES global warming normalized warming trends tropical amplification warming trends |
title | Quantifying the Occurrence of Record Hot Years Through Normalized Warming Trends |
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