Climate change and dengue fever transmission in China: Evidences and challenges

Dengue Fever (DF) has become one of the most serious infectious diseases in China. Dengue virus and its vector (Aedes mosquito) are known to be sensitive to climate condition. Climate impacts DF through affecting three essential bioecological aspects: DF virus, vector (mosquito) and DF transmission environment. Weather-based DF model, mosquito model and climate model are the three pillars to help the prediction of DF distribution. Through a systematic review of literature between 1980 and 2017, this paper summarizes empirical evidences in China on the impact of climate change on DF; it further reviews the related DF incidence models and their findings on how changes in weather factors may impact DF occurrences in China. Compared with some well-known research projects in the western countries, there is a lack of knowledge in China regarding how the spatiotemporal distribution of DF will respond to climate change. However, being able to predict DF distribution is key to China's efforts to prevent and control DF transmission. We conclude this paper by recommending four focused areas for China: promoting more advanced research on the relationship between extreme weather events and DF, developing regional-specific models for the high risk regions of DF in south China, encouraging interdisciplinary collaboration between climate studies and health services, and enhancing public health education and management at national, regional and local levels. [Display omitted] •Climate change may bring increased risk of DF to China, especially to its south and southeast coast regions.•Projection of DF under climate change is related to the development of weather-based DF model, vector and climate models.•Lack of national-level DF model in China and uncertainties in vector model and climate model are challenges.•Promoting interdisciplinary collaboration and further developing public health education are recommended for China.