Novel tropical forests: response to global change

Warming climates in the twenty-first century are expected to push tropical ecosystems, which currently reside at the warm and wet edge of bioclimatic life zones, into novel states that have no analog on Earth today (Fig. 1). Shifting precipitation patterns will expose some tropical forest regions to more frequent drought conditions that may reduce carbon (C) assimilation and lead to vegetation dieback, and all regions will experience higher temperatures never encountered by extant taxa. At the same time, direct anthropogenic disturbances, such as the hunting of large seed dispersers, use of fire for land management, deforestation, and agricultural land abandonment, are affecting the capacity of forests to mitigate climate change.