Assessing the System Value of Optimal Load Shifting

We analyze a competitive electricity market, where consumers exhibit optimal load shifting behavior to maximize utility and producers/suppliers maximize their profit under supply capacity constraints. The associated computationally tractable formulation can be used to inform market design or policy analysis in the context of increasing availability of the smart grid technologies that enable optimal load shifting. Through analytic and numeric assessment of the model, we assess the equilibrium value of optimal electricity load shifting, including how the value changes as more electricity consumers adopt associated technologies. For our illustrative numerical case, derived from the current trends scenario of the ERCOT long term system assessment, the average energy arbitrage value per ERCOT customer of optimal load shifting technologies is estimated to be 3 for the 2031 scenario year. We assess the sensitivity of this result to the flexibility of load, along with its relationship to the deployment of renewables. The model presented can also be a starting point for designing system operation infrastructure that communicates with the devices that schedule loads in response to price signals.