Response modeling of small-scale energy consumers for effective demand response applications

•A novel framework for predicting consumer behavior in demand response programs.•Prediction of demand shifting at activity level, in response to changes in pricing.•Models incorporate consumer preferences and comfort through a sensitivity factor.•Evaluated in two real-world pilots: a residential building and a shopping center.•An average error of less than 10% proves the effectiveness of the presented models. The Smart Grid paradigm can be economically and socially sustainable by engaging potential consumers through understanding, trust and clear tangible benefits. Interested consumers may assume a more active role in the energy market by claiming new energy products/services on offer and changing their consumption behavior. To this end, suppliers, aggregators and Distribution System Operators can provide monetary incentives for customer behavioral change through demand response programs, which are variable pricing schemes aiming at consumption shifting and/or reduction. However, forecasting the effect of such programs on power demand requires accurate models that can efficiently describe and predict changes in consumer activities as a response to pricing alterations. Current work proposes such a detailed bottom-up response modeling methodology, as a first step towards understanding and formulating consumer response. We build upon previous work on small-scale consumer activity modeling and provide a novel approach for describing and predicting consumer response at the level of individual activities. The proposed models are used to predict shifting of demand as a result of modified pricing policies and they incorporate consumer preferences and comfort through sensitivity factors. Experiments indicate the effectiveness of the proposed method on real-life data collected from two different pilot sites: 32 apartments of a multi-residential building in Sweden, as well as 11 shops in a large commercial center in Italy.