Uncertainty Analysis in Geospatial Merit Matrix–Based Hydropower Resource Assessment

AbstractHydraulic head and mean annual streamflow, two main input parameters in hydropower resource assessment, are not measured at every point along the stream. Translation and interpolation are used to derive these parameters, resulting in uncertainties. This study estimates the uncertainties and their effects on model output parameters: the total potential power and the number of potential locations (stream-reach). These parameters are quantified through Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) linking with a geospatial merit matrix–based hydropower resource assessment (GMM-HRA) model. The methodology is applied to flat, mild, and steep terrains. Results show that the uncertainty associated with the hydraulic head is within 20% for mild and steep terrains, and the uncertainty associated with streamflow is around 16% for all three terrains. Output uncertainty increases as input uncertainty increases. However, output uncertainty is around 10–20% of the input uncertainty, demonstrating the robustness of the GMM-HRA model. Hydraulic head is more sensitive to output parameters in steep terrain than in flat and mild terrains. Mean annual streamflow is more sensitive to output parameters in flat terrain.