Incorporating residential AC load control into ancillary service markets: Measurement and settlement

Many pre-existing air conditioner load control programs can provide valuable operational flexibility but have not been incorporated into electricity ancillary service markets or grid operations. Multiple demonstrations have shown that residential air conditioner (AC) response can deliver resources quickly and can provide contingency reserves. A key policy hurdle to be overcome before AC load control can be fully incorporated into markets is how to balance the accuracy, cost, and complexity of methods available for the settlement of load curtailment. Overcoming this hurdle requires a means for assessing the accuracy of shorter-term AC load control demand reduction estimation approaches in an unbiased manner. This paper applies such a method to compare the accuracy of approaches varying in cost and complexity – including regression analysis, load matching and control group approaches – using feeder data, household data and AC end-use data. We recommend a practical approach for settlement, relying on an annually updated set of tables, with pre-calculated reduction estimates. These tables allow users to look up the demand reduction per device based on daily maximum temperature, geographic region and hour of day, simplifying settlement and providing a solution to the policy problem presented in this paper. ► Many AC load control programs with unused capacity are not part of grid operations. ► A key problem hampering use in grid operations is measurement of load reductions. ► Although commonly used, day-matching baselines are not well-suited to this purpose. ► We compare measurement accuracy of simulated load reductions using various methods. ► We recommend use of load impact tables and a more detailed ex-post evaluation.