Calculating impacts of energy standards on energy demand in U.S. buildings with uncertainty in an integrated assessment model

In this paper, an IAM (integrated assessment model) uses a newly-developed Monte Carlo analysis capability to analyze the impacts of more aggressive U.S. residential and commercial building-energy codes and equipment standards on energy consumption and energy service costs at the state level, explicitly recognizing uncertainty in technology effectiveness and cost, socioeconomics, presence or absence of carbon prices, and climate impacts on energy demand. The paper finds that aggressive building-energy codes and equipment standards are an effective, cost-saving way to reduce energy consumption in buildings and greenhouse gas emissions in U.S. states. This conclusion is robust to significant uncertainties in population, economic activity, climate, carbon prices, and technology performance and costs. •Integrated analysis was used at the state level with Monte Carlo uncertainty.•Aggressive building and equipment standards saved consumers energy and money.•Savings were robust to several sources of uncertainty.