CO2 leakage impacts on shallow groundwater: Field-scale reactive-transport simulations informed by observations at a natural analog site

► Use natural analog for studying CO2 impacts on groundwater. ► Transport simulations reproduce key field geochemical data. ► Water quality impacts may be local in extent but persistent. It is challenging to predict the degree to which shallow groundwater might be affected by leaks from a CO2 sequestration reservoir, particularly over long time scales and large spatial scales. In this study observations at a CO2 enriched shallow aquifer natural analog were used to develop a predictive model which is then used to simulate leakage scenarios. This natural analog provides the opportunity to make direct field observations of groundwater chemistry in the presence of elevated CO2, to collect aquifer samples and expose them to CO2 under controlled conditions in the laboratory, and to test the ability of multi-phase reactive transport models to reproduce measured geochemical trends at the field-scale. The field observations suggest that brackish water entrained with the upwelling CO2 are a more significant source of trace metals than in situ mobilization of metals due to exposure to CO2. The study focuses on a single trace metal of concern at this site: U. Experimental results indicate that cation exchange/adsorption and dissolution/precipitation of calcite containing trace amounts of U are important reactions controlling U in groundwater at this site, and that the amount of U associated with calcite is fairly well constrained. Simulations incorporating these results into a 3-D multi-phase reactive transport model are able to reproduce the measured ranges and trends between pH, pCO2, Ca, total C, U and Cl− at the field site. Although the true fluxes at the natural analog site are unknown, the cumulative CO2 flux inferred from these simulations are approximately equivalent to 37.8E−3MT, approximately corresponding to a .001% leak rate for injection at a large (750MW) power plant. The leakage scenario simulations suggest that if the leak only persists for a short time the volume of aquifer contaminated by CO2-induced mobilization of U will be relatively small, yet persistent over 100 a.