Shaping and securing the EU's open strategic autonomy by 2040 and beyond

The objective of this Science for Policy report is to present the results of the foresight process carried out on the future of open strategic autonomy. The report describes trends and emerging issues looking at 2040 and beyond in a systematic and systemic way. It informs the 2021 European Commission Strategic Foresight Agenda and it provides foresight analysis and knowledge to the 2021 Strategic Foresight Report. Desk research was carried out, including a literature review, policy analysis and syntheses of existing knowledge on the current state of the EU's open strategic autonomy and future possibilities in 2040 and beyond. Participatory foresight methods were employed to build collective intelligence on possible future developments, including the development of scenarios and an assessment of future policy options. This report presents foresight scenarios on the global standing of the EU in 2040, in relation to open strategic autonomy. The scenarios were derived in participatory workshops with experts and stakeholders. They point to ways for the EU to build preparedness through anticipation. A Delphi enquiry enabled the engagement of experts who assessed and ranked the identified 'forward-looking issues' in terms of their relevance for shaping and securing the EU's open strategic autonomy towards 2040.