Composite Leading Indicators and Growth Cycles in Major OECD Non-Member Economies and recently new OECD Members Countries

The OECD developed a System of Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) for its Member Countries in the early 1980?s based on the ?growth cycle? approach and up to 2006 the Organisation compiled composite leading indicators for 23 of the 30 Member countries. Country coverage has now been expanded to include recently new OECD member countries (Korea, New Zealand1, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovak Republic) and the major six OECD non-member economies (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russian Federation and South Africa) monitored by the organization in the OECD System of Composite Leading Indicators. The expansion of the OECD System of Composite Leading Indicators to include the new CLIs for the six recently new OECD member countries has implications for the calculation of the OECD total area and the OECD Europe area aggregates. In addition, the inclusion of the new CLIs for all of above twelve countries opens the possibility to calculate new area aggregates such as Major Asian economies, Eastern Europe including or excluding the Russian Federation and a World proxy to give information on the overall global development. The importance of such new regional or area aggregates is of course very much dependent on the existence of different cyclical patterns between these new aggregates and the established ones. However, the calculation of a World proxy aggregate is important in itself in so far that it will represent global development better than the OECD total area aggregate.