Modeling potential invasion of stored-product pest Cryptamorpha desjardinsii (Guérin-Méneville, 1844) (Coleoptera: Silvanidae) with emphasis on newly recorded areas

[Display omitted] •We provided new locality records of C. desjardinsii for Japan, New Caledonia, and Brazil.•We combine several techniques to predict the ecological niche of the C. desjardinsii.•We modeled for first time the high-risk areas of the global invasion.•Our consensus model can promote control programs on a global scale. Desjardin’s flat bark beetle – Cryptamorpha desjardinsii (Guérin-Méneville, 1844) – is a widespread invasive species that can become a stored products pest and threaten native species. Our objectives were to provide the first detailed records of this species to South America and New Caledonia, and model suitable areas of C. desjardinsii globally based on different Ecological Niche Models (ENM). We combine several techniques to predict the ecological niche of C. desjardinsii using distribution records and a set of environmental predictor variables. Overall, the species appears to be well established in tropical and subtropical regions, particularly in islands, with new and previous records predicted by the consensus model. In South America, the driest and coldest regions were predicted to be less suitable for the occurrence of C. desjardinsii. In the current global spread context, these findings are pivotal to predicting areas of high risk of invasion of C. desjardinsii.