기후변화에 따른 맥종별 재배실태와 보급종 보급지역에 의한 재배한계지 평가

This study was conducted to determine the extent to which climate change is expanding areas in which barley can be successfully cultivated. In 2019 and 2020, we collected data on areas that had requested certified seeds from the Korea Seed and Variety Service to determine potential cultivation areas. In addition, we surveyed the growth and yield of different types of barley in fields. Certified seeds of hulled and dehulled barley were requested by farmers across Korea from the Korea Seed and Variety Service in both years. Areas that were provided with certified seeds were considered potential barley cultivation areas. The varieties and use rates of certified seeds varied based on the barley type and region. For example, certified seeds of dehulled barley in 2019 and 2020 were not used in some areas, whereas in others, these seeds constituted 100% of the seeds sown for barley crops. In 2019 and 2020, the average sowing days in Korea were from October 17 to November 9 for dehulled barley, October 26 to November 13 for hulled barley, October 19 to November 5 for malting barley, and October 3 to November 1 for naked oats. Thus, the sowing days of the barley types varied depending on the area and year they were used. For example, in the case of hulled barley in Jeonnam, some farmers sowed until December 12. The yield per 10 a of barley cultivation was typically higher in the main production areas than in the cultivation limit areas. In extreme cases, harvest was impossible in some cultivation limited areas, such as Gangwon-do. Based on the current 20-year January minimum average temperature (JMAT) in Korea (2002-2021), climate change scenarios suggest that barley cultivation is feasible, provided that the minimum temperature in January is no lower than -10°C, -8°C, and -4°C for hulled barley, dehulled barley, and for malting barley and naked oats, respectively. Additionally, cultivation of barley across South Korea seems feasible based on data on certified barley seeds by area. Although both JMAT and certified seed data suggest that barley cultivation across Korea is feasible, our survey results of barley growth and yield showed that harvest was impossible in certain cultivation areas, such as Gangwon-do. Therefore, climate change scenarios related to the cultivation limits of different barley types need to be re-estimated by factoring in survey data on the growth and yield of crops within those cultivation areas.