수입 펄프 가격의 시계열적 특성 분석

The primary objective of the study is to analyze the time series characteristics of the im- ported pulp (HwBKP and SwBKP) prices. The results from Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) tests to check the existence of unit root showed that each of the HwBKP and SwBKP price series was stationary. Autoregressive (AR) models with seasonal dummy variables were used to estimate the prices of HwBKP and SwBKP with the lag order of 3 and 2 respec- tively. The Johansen cointegration tests showed that HwBKP and SwBKP prices were cointegrated, suggesting that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between them. The results from Granger causality tests showed the evidence of bi-directional causal relationship, implying a feedback mechanism between HwBKP and SwBKP prices. This study in general suggests that the prices of HwBKP and SwBKP do not move along sepa- rately, but they closely impact each other and maintain a long-run equilibrium relation- ship. KCI Citation Count: 0