Increased Visit-to-Visit Liver Enzyme Variability Is Associated with Incident Diabetes: A Community-Based 12-Year Prospective Cohort Study

Fatty liver and/or increased liver enzyme values have been reported to be associated with incident diabetes. We sought to determine whether increased visit-to-visit liver enzyme variability is associated with incident diabetes. Study participants were recruited from the Korean Genome and Epidemiologic Study (KoGES). A total of 4,151 people aged 40 to 69 years was recruited and tested every 2 years for up to 12 years. Visit-to-visit aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) variability was evaluated in first the 6-year period through the use of various variability measurements: standard deviation (SD), average successive variability, coefficient of variation (CV), and variation independent of mean (VIM). Oral glucose tolerance test was performed at every visit. During the 6-year follow-up appointments, 13.0% (538/4,151) of people developed incident diabetes. Visit-to-visit AST variability was associated with an increased risk of diabetes independent of conventional risk factors for diabetes (hazard ratio per 1-SD increment [95% confidence interval]: 1.06 [1.00 to 1.11], 1.12 [1.04 to 1.21], and 1.13 [1.04 to 1.22] for SD, CV, and VIM, respectively; all P