Redisplacement of Distal Radius Fracture after Initial Closed Reduction: Analysis of Prognostic Factors

To evaluate risk factors of redisplacement and remind surgeons of key factors regarding conservative treatment of distal radius fracture. A total of 132 patients who received conservative treatment for distal radius fractures between March 2008 and February 2011 were included in this study. Radial inclination, radial length, volar tilting angle, ulnar variance, fragment translation, and presence of dorsal metaphyseal comminution were measured on the X-rays taken immediately after reduction, one week after injury during the first follow-up outpatient clinic visit, and after the gain of radiological union. Secondary displacement was defined as a loss of reduction during the follow-up period, and was divided into 'early' and 'late' categories. We analyzed the influence of initial displacement radiologic variables, dorsal cortex comminution, and patient age on the development of secondary displacement. Development of secondary displacement was significantly associated only with initial displacement radiologic variables (p < 0.001), development of the late secondary displacement was significantly associated with age (p = 0.005), and initial displacement radiologic variables were associated significantly with a serial increase in ulnar variance (p = 0.003). Greater displacement on the initial radiographs indicates a higher possibility of development for secondary displacement, and older patients had a higher probability of late secondary displacement development. Furthermore, dorsal comminutions did not affect secondary displacement directly.