Spatio-temporal analysis of precipitation in eastern India for last three decades

Climate change emerges as a significant factor influencing rainfall variability, as it results in changes in annual or seasonal rainfall patterns along with precipitation intensity. The present study analyzes rainfall trends in Eastern India, covering 23 districts of West Bengal, utilizing data from 1993 to 2022. The study aims to improve our capacity to identify and forecast occurrences of floods, droughts and other extreme weather phenomena. Results from the Mann Kendall Test reveal significant trends as Jalpaiguri displayed the highest positive trend (Z value = 1.36), suggesting an upward trend, while Malda shows the most significant negative trend (Z value = -4.46). Bankura and Coochbehar exhibit no trend (Z score = 0). Whereas Modified Mann Kendall Test indicates 33.87% significant increase in post-monsoon rainfall and an overall 2.61% rise in annual rainfall. The Sen’s Slope Estimator is used to assess the strength and direction of the analyzed trend, allowing a more comprehensive understanding of the rainfall dynamics in Eastern India. Analyzing variations offers insights to develop adaptive strategies to mitigate the effects on the agricultural and water resources management sector. These findings can also be applied to hydroelectric power generation or to regions of ecosystem health restoration.