Application of grey model for machine degradation prognostics

Predicting machine degradation before final failure occurs is very important. This paper presents a method to predict the future state of machine degradation based on grey model and one-step-ahead forecasting technique. Specifically, the feasibility of grey model as a predictor for machine degradation prognostics system has been investigated. Grey model GM(1,1) has employed to forecast the future state of machine degradation, but the result is not satisfactory. Finally, a modification of GM(1,1) has made to improve the accuracy of prediction. However the model was built by using only four input data, it is able to track closely the sudden change of machine degradation condition. Real trending data of low methane compressor acquired from condition monitoring routine are employed for evaluating the proposed method.