한-ASEAN 자유무역협정(FTA)의 수출촉진 효과 분석

Purpose – This paper empirically examines whether the Korea-ASEAN FTA really promotes Korea’s exports, thereby drawing some policy implications for the Korea’s FTA policy. Design/Methodology/Approach – We first calculate the export-promotion effects of the Korea-ASEAN FTA as well as other Korea’s FTAs using a difference-in-difference (DID) method, and then conduct both static and dynamic panel regression analyses based on the augmented gravity model, using Korea’s FTAs and relevant data over the period from 1999 to 2018. Findings – First, DID results reveal that the Korea-ASEAN FTA has increased its exports by 9.1%, which is much larger than the FTAs with China (-7.2%), India (-9.1%), and the EU (1.2%), but lower than the FTAs with the USA (10.4%) and EFTA (26.2%). Second, however, neither static nor dynamic panel data regression results support the export-promotion effects of the Korea-ASEAN FTA, regardless of estimation methods and export categories. Finally, ASEAN membership itself plays a statistically significant role in promoting Korea's exports to members, which implies that Korea would export more to the ASEAN members than its normal level stipulated by a gravity equation even without the FTA. Research Implications – Unlike what is commonly believed, Korea’s FTA with ASEAN as well as its other FTAs were not likely to increase its exports in a statistically significant way. It is particularly true for its FTAs with developing countries. Thus, the Korean government needs to keep improving the content of existing FTAs with developing countries to enhance the market access of Korean products. KCI Citation Count: 5