Regular papers / Articles ordinairesReceiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis of the effectiveness of construction planning efforts in Australia and the United Kingdom

This paper presents the results of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis of the effectiveness of construction planning efforts, based on samples of building projects in Australia and the United Kingdom. The results of the study provide an evaluation of the extent of the effort that must be invested in planning and control activities to achieve success in the performance of construction projects. The study also illustrates the potential application of ROC curve analysis in construction engineering and management research. Planning efforts in a sample of 52 building projects in Australia and 37 building projects in the United Kingdom were evaluated and compared. This study builds on work done in an earlier study in which the concept of optimal planning of construction projects was explored. The ROC curve analysis offers several advantages over the regression methodology employed in the previous optimal planning study. The graphical representation of the relationship between sensitivity and specificity over all possible diagnostic cutoff points provides an insight into the interactions of the variables that was not apparent in the original methodology.Key words: construction planning, project planning, project management, ROC curve analysis, Australia, United Kingdom.