Risk of Increased Fragmentation Events Due to Low Altitude Large Constellation Spacecraft

Orbital debris experts and industry leaders are concerned about the added hazard that thousands of additional spacecraft would have on the future orbital debris environment. Large constellations proposals plan to deploy spacecraft at altitudes from 1100 km to 1300 km, where fragmentation debris can take thousands of years or longer to decay naturally, while other proposals include deploying spacecraft at station-keeping altitudes from 300 km to 600 km. Although these lower altitude spacecraft are compliant with the 25-year rule, there is still an increased risk of accidental explosions generating high velocity fragments that could damage international spacecraft assets. The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has conducted several parametric studies that examine the potential negative environmental impacts of large constellation deployments. This study addresses the lower altitude constellations and the potential risk that they impose on the future environment during mission operations. The projected future environment is generated as the average of 100 LEGEND Monte Carlo (MC) simulation runs while adjusting parameters such as average probability of explosion and operational lifetime per constellation. Results of the effect of accidental explosions of large constellation spacecraft on the environment below 600 km altitude are analyzed.