Early differentiation between uncomplicated and complicatedStaphylococcus aureusbacteraemia: potential value and limitations of a clinical risk score

Objective A cornerstone in the management ofStaphylococcus aureusbacteraemia (SAB) is the differentiation between a complicated and an uncomplicated SAB course. The ability to early and accurately identify patients with - and without - complicated bacteraemia may optimise the utility of diagnostics and prevent unnecessary prolonged antibiotic therapy. Methods Development and validation of a prediction score in SAB using demographic, clinical, and laboratory data from two independent Dutch cohorts; estimating the risk of complicated disease at the time of the first positive blood culture. Models were developed using logistic regression and evaluated by c-statistics, ie area under the ROC-curve, and negative predictive values (NPV). Results The development- and validation cohorts included 150 and 183 patients, respectively. The most optimal prediction model included: mean arterial pressure, signs of metastatic infection on physical examination, leucocyte count, urea level and time to positivity of blood cultures (c-statistic 0.82, 95% CI 0.74-0.89). In the validation cohort, the c-statistic of the prediction score was 0,77 (95% CI 0.69-0.84). The NPV for complicated disease for patients with a score of