Northern distribution limits and future suitable habitats of warm temperate evergreen broad-leaved tree species designated as climate-sensitive biological indicator species in South Korea

Background: Climate change significantly influences the geographical distribution of plant species worldwide. Selecting indicator species allows for better-informed and more effective ecosystem management in response to climate change. The Korean Peninsula is the northernmost distribution zone of warm temperate evergreen broad-leaved (WTEB) species in Northeast Asia. Considering the ecological value of these species, we evaluated the current distribution range and future suitable habitat for 13 WTEB tree species designated as climate-sensitive biological indicator species. Results: Up-to-date and accurate WTEB species distribution maps were constructed using herbarium specimens and citizen science data from the Korea Biodiversity Observation Network. Current northern limits for several species have shifted to higher latitudes compared to previous records. For example, the northern latitude limit for Stauntonia hexaphylla is higher (37° 02' N, Deokjeokdo archipelago) than that reported previously (36° 13' N). The minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) is the major factor influencing species distribution. Under future climate change scenarios, suitable habitats are predicted to expand toward higher latitudes inland and along the western coastal areas. Conclusions: Our results support the suitability of WTEB trees as significant biological indicators of species' responses to warming. The findings also suggest the need for consistent monitoring of species distribution shifts. This study provides an important baseline dataset for future monitoring and management of indicator species' responses to changing climate conditions in South Korea.