Incidence, Prevalence, and Mortality Rate of Gastrointestinal Cancer in Isfahan, Iran: Application of the MIAMOD Method

Gastrointestinal cancers remain the most prevalent cancers in many developing countries such as Iran. The aim of this study was to estimate incidence, prevalence and mortality, as well as time trends for gastrointestinal cancers in Isfahan province of Iran for the period 2001 to 2010 and to project these estimates to the year 2020. Estimates were driven by applying the MIAMOD method (a backward calculation approach using mortality and relative survival rates). Mortality data were obtained from the Ministry of Health and the relative survival rate for all gastrointestinal cancers combined was derived from the Eurocare 3 study. Results indicated that there were clear upward trends in age adjusted incidence (males 22.9 to 74.2 and females 14.9 to 44.2), prevalence (males 52.6 to 177.7 and females 38.3 to 111.03), and mortality (males 14.6 to 47.2 and females 9.6 to 28.2) rates per 100,000 for the period of 2001 to 2010 and this upward state would persist for the projected period. For the entire period, the male to female ratio increased slightly for all parameters (incidence rate increased from 1.5 to 1.7, prevalence from 1.4 to 1.6, and mortality from 1.5 to 1.7). In males, totals of 2,179 incident cases, 5,097 prevalent cases and 1,398 mortality cases were predicated to occur during the study period. For females the predicted figures were 1,379, 3,190 and 891, respectively. It was concluded that the upward trend of incidence alongside increase in survival rates would induce a high burden on the health care infrastructure in the province of Isfahan in the future.