Japan`s New Defense Policy for 2010: Hardening the Hedge

Based upon a strategic assessment that portrays the United States in relative decline and international public goods deteriorating, Japan has placed new emphasis on developing its own capability to deter China in the "gray zones" of disputed territories and waters near its southern island chain. Consensus across the Japanese security community on this new strategic outlook has led to the abandonment of the Basic Defense Force concept and the adoption of a "Dynamic Defense Force" concept as the underlying logic driving Japan`s defense policy. Japan`s new policy of dynamic deterrence emphasizes increasing its visibility in the southern islands through improved intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance (ISR) capabilities as well as enhancing its capability to deal with contingencies arising in that area by developing a more mobile and flexible force structure that is better coordinated for a timely response. While domestic ideological battles continue to thwart the adoption of collective self-defense and other controversial revisions to Japan`s defense policy, Japan`s willingness to play a larger role in monitoring Chinese maritime expansion in the East China Sea has been welcomed by the United States. The article concludes by arguing that Japan`s "3/11" disaster is unlikely to cause it to abandon its new defense policy and that the future of Japan`s defense transformation will most likely be guided by the outcome of Japan`s engagement with China.