Models Of Change: A FORESIGHT TOOL TO AID POLICYMAKERS

After noting characteristics of how futurists view change and stages of change (A–B–C–D), this article examines sixteen different models with examples, of the processes transforming our world. These collectively cover many issues in the future studies field, issues that policymakers in different areas must address. This review includes both older and newer models of change. Older models, from different cultures and time periods, led to more predictable views of the future, while many newer models incorporate uncertainty and unpredictability, where gradual change within a system suddenly shifts, leading to either the breakdown of the system or a breakthrough to a new system level or both. Clarifying not only trends, but also models of change underlying the trends, could help policymakers make more informed policy decisions and better prepare for dealing with uncertainty in our contemporary world and in the future.