Why the First Kashmir Insurrection Failed

In 1948, the people of Kashmir revolted against the state's forceful annexation with India. But the armed insurrection met with defeat as the rebels lost a major chunk of Kashmir's territory to India. This paper aims to analyse the factors leading to the failure of the first Kashmir insurrection in light of 'The Prerequisites for a Successful Insurgency' put forth by David Galula, the preeminent expert on counter-insurgency and guerrilla warfare. Application of Galula's framework reveals the presence of all four rudiments including a well-defined cause, weaknesses of counter-insurgents, suitable geographic conditions and outside support from Pakistani tribesmen. But the insurrection failed mainly due to undisciplined tribal fighters, their lack of understanding of the human and geographic terrain of Kashmir, serious logistical issues experienced by indigenous Kashmiri fighters and unfavourable weather conditions. The paper advocates for revisiting Galula's framework in light of insurgencies in South Asia, a region that he might have overlooked while theorizing the phenomenon.