Validation of Reliability Prediction Models

This paper proposes new methods to assess the validity of reliability prediction models through a Bayesian approach. The concept of Bayesian hypothesis testing is extended to system-level problems where full-scale testing is impossible. Component-level validation results are used to derive a system-...

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Veröffentlicht in:SAE transactions 2003-01, Vol.112, p.452-458
Hauptverfasser: Rebba, Ramesh, Mahadevan, Sankaran, Zhang, Ruoxue
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creator Rebba, Ramesh
Mahadevan, Sankaran
Zhang, Ruoxue
description This paper proposes new methods to assess the validity of reliability prediction models through a Bayesian approach. The concept of Bayesian hypothesis testing is extended to system-level problems where full-scale testing is impossible. Component-level validation results are used to derive a system-level validation measure. This derivation depends on the knowledge of interrelationships between component modules. Bayes networks are used for the propagation of validation information from the component-level to system-level. Validation of reliability prediction model for a single degree of freedom oscillator under high-cycle fatigue and fatigue life prediction of a helicopter rotor hub is illustrated for this purpose.
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subjects Bayesian networks
Delamination
Estimate reliability
Modeling
Natural frequencies
Probabilities
Random variables
Statistics
System failures
Test data
title Validation of Reliability Prediction Models
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