Validation of Reliability Prediction Models

This paper proposes new methods to assess the validity of reliability prediction models through a Bayesian approach. The concept of Bayesian hypothesis testing is extended to system-level problems where full-scale testing is impossible. Component-level validation results are used to derive a system-level validation measure. This derivation depends on the knowledge of interrelationships between component modules. Bayes networks are used for the propagation of validation information from the component-level to system-level. Validation of reliability prediction model for a single degree of freedom oscillator under high-cycle fatigue and fatigue life prediction of a helicopter rotor hub is illustrated for this purpose.