Olea europaea: integration of GIS and simulation modelling to define a map of "dacie attack risk" in Tuscany

Olive oil production is one of the most important and valuable agricultural activities of Tuscany. Because of its importance, the control of insect pests and diseases has been mainly carried out by a large and inconsiderate use of chemicals. In particular the olive fly (Bactrocera oleae) has been always fought with the application of sprays at fixed dates with serious consequences for the ecosystem. Nowadays integrated pest management and organic agriculture are supplanting the traditional management of plant growing and protection, with the objective to obtain a high quality product, safeguarding the environment safety. The integration of different know how and technologies should be the starting-point to reach this important purpose. In this work a mathematical model based on thermal summation was applied to simulate the number of generations performed by the fly starting from temperature data collected by 68 weather stations scattered in Thiscany (Central Italy). In order to produce a thematic map of "dacie attack risk", the model output was spatially interpolated using three different methods, multiple linear regression, ordinary kriging and kriging topographically informed with altitude. The results of these different methods were analysed and discussed in order to evaluate their precision and eventual application to support farmer activity.