Modellrechnungen zur Entwicklung von Einnahmen und Ausgaben in der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung

The German Federal Ministry of Labour annually publishes a projection of the financial situation of the Social Old Age Insurance (Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung) within the next 15 years. As the results are not independent of the interests of the government, they give rise to a lot of critical objections. In this article an alternative account is presented which tries to set forth some improvements regarding the estimates of essential parameters. Moreover some assumptions have been altered to show the uncertainty of the results. In addition to this the computations make clear that even unsignificant alterations of basic premises sum up to enormous effects till the end of the projection period. This is demonstrated by setting up different ways to overcome the actual economic crisis.