über die Deflationierung der volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung

The analysis of current events relies to a large extent on deflated figures. This holds true for business cycle analysis as well as long term growth studies. It is, however, a basic weakness that such deflations involve a separation of volumes and prices in macro-economics as in fact the interrelation between volumes and prices is a cornerstone in other fields of economic analysis. Even disregarding this basic objection a number of important problems are raised in an interpretation of deflated figures. In the national accounts two types of entries appear: Money values corresponding to certain flows of goods and services and money values having no such operational counterpart. With respect to the first type of entries — total output is an example — the classical index problems arise. With respect to the second type of entries — the flow of savings is an example — the choice of deflators becomes even wider as the interpretation of "volumes" in this case presents great difficulties. Clearly, most of the problems arise from the fact that prices do not change at a uniform rate. The change in relative prices means that the balancing accounts within the framework of deflated national accounts usually cannot be maintained unless certain residual entities are introduced in the different accounts. Given a system of deflators it may, however, be very difficult to give an economic interpretation of these residuals. On the other hand, if certain restrictions are attached to these residuals the choice of deflators is reduced. It can be shown, that the "ideal" solution would be to manipulate political parameters in a complete model in such a way that given exogeneous changes are neutralized in terms of prices. In this way a clear meaning could be given to such dubious items as "the volume of savings" or "the gain from changes in the terms of trade." For instance, "the volume of savings" would be the savings generated in such a model if a threat of price changes is neutralized by specified changes in policy parameters. This leaves scope for many alternative "volumes of savings;" but each of them would have a clear interpretation.