Prospects for Peace in Assam

Now that some of the senior leaders of the outlawed United Liberation Front of Asom are back in Assam and in prison, what are the chances that they will reconsider their stated uncompromising positions on Swadhin Asom? There are many imponderables that the arrested leaders have to confront: their ability to carry the rank and file (even if the powerful military chief has shown hints of a rethink), ULFA's links with other separatist groups, the position of the leaders who were arrested earlier and of other groups drawn to the idea of an "independent" Assam. At the same time there are other factors at play which could "wonderfully concentrate the minds" of the ULFA leaders on a settlement with the government of India.